Though well written, there is one fatal flaw with its primary argument. The probability argument does not stand, because to beat it, all you need to do is to be "lucky." I will admit that in our case, we need to be really lucky. Despite the seemingly improbable odds however, it is still possible that one hits the jackpot on the first try. Just look at the lottery, there is almost always a winner. And we happen to be one of many lucky winners over time!